​Our discussion, led by Nilesh Sharma, SVP Research & Advisory Services at Fuld, featured Mandy Farris Woods, COO at Objective Investment Banking & Valuation, Rose Thompson, COO at ButcherJoseph & Co, and Shawn Flynn, MD at Silicon Valley Highpoint Capital.

​They shared a candid view of an industry in transition, one where operational discipline, technology adoption, and strategic flexibility are no longer optional, but essential.

​Deal activity:

​Over the past 18 months, deal activity has been uneven and highly timing-dependent. While high-quality transactions continue to close, pipelines have fluctuated significantly by sector and geography. Firms with diversified advisory offerings have been better positioned to absorb these swings, while those reliant on traditional M&A have faced longer timelines and increased pressure on resources. Valuation gaps and cautious seller behavior have further complicated execution, reinforcing the need for tighter forecasting, standardized processes, and more deliberate capacity management.

​Planning cycles:

​Operational maturity has become a defining competitive advantage. Leading firms are moving away from annual planning cycles toward shorter, execution-focused horizons that allow for faster course correction. Investments in workflow standardization, performance metrics, and accountability frameworks are improving consistency even as deal volumes fluctuate. In an event-driven fee model, predictability of cash flow and effective talent deployment remain among the most persistent challenges, making disciplined operating models a critical differentiator, particularly in the lower middle market.

​Artificial Intelligence:

​Artificial intelligence is now a central component of this operational shift. AI-enabled tools are already accelerating research, drafting, presentation development, and internal collaboration, significantly compressing transaction timelines. Rather than replacing expertise, AI is being used to remove low-value manual work and free professionals to focus on judgment-driven activities such as client advisory, negotiation, and problem-solving. Firms that delay adoption risk falling behind competitors who are embedding AI across the deal lifecycle.

​2026:

​Looking ahead to 2026, expectations are cautiously optimistic. Valuations have normalized, sellers are better prepared, and private equity firms remain under pressure to deploy capital. Activity is expected to improve steadily, particularly in succession-driven transactions and add-on acquisitions. At the same time, the operational gap between disciplined firms and those relying on ad hoc processes is likely to widen. Education, content, and proactive engagement will also play a growing role as clients seek greater clarity around process, options, and value creation.

​Ultimately, the firms best positioned for the future will be those that pair strong operating foundations with practical AI adoption—while continuing to invest in the human relationships and judgment that remain irreplaceable in complex transactions.

The post ​Middle-Market Investment Banking in 2026: Operational Discipline, AI Adoption, and the Path to Resilient Growth appeared first on Fuld & Co.

The Russian owned refinery is a perfect example of state capture through the control of a strategic energy asset. Producing 140,000 barrels per day Burgas has long been regarded as a Trojan horse within the European Union permitting Russian soft-power influence and corruption to solidify inside a key NATO member country. Lukoil’s control of Burgas allowed Russian influence to spread throughout the Balkans due to its vast downstream energy network, using its strategic energy asset as an instrument to back pro-Russian actors both inside and outside Bulgaria.

Two potential bidders may step into this vacuum: Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR and Türkiye’s Cengiz Holding, a conglomerate closely aligned with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Their interest has raised a question that would have been unthinkable a few years ago: could an Azerbaijani-Turkish partnership become the instrument through which the United States and Bulgaria finally sever their remaining energy dependency on Russia? The idea is not as far-fetched as it sounds.

Why SOCAR Is in the Conversation

For years, Lukoil’s, and other sanctioned Russian energy companies’ preferred exit route seemed obvious: Gunvor. The trading house, once co-owned by Gennadiy Timchenko — a longtime associate of Vladimir Putin — had deep commercial proximity to Russia’s energy ecosystem and historically offered Moscow the smoothest way to preserve operational continuity without formal ownership ties. But the geopolitical landscape has shifted. In the post-Ukraine-invasion environment, any transfer to a Russia-adjacent intermediary is politically untenable in either Washington or Brussels. That shift creates a narrow but genuine opening for SOCAR to deepen its presence in the Balkans after acquiring a major stake in Italiana Petroli (IP), one of Italy’s top refining and distribution companies.

Over the past decade, SOCAR has quietly but systematically expanded its downstream footprint in Europe. From retail and marketing in Italy and Switzerland to gas trading and logistics across the continent, the company has been reshaping itself from a pipeline-bound exporter into a diversified European operator. Burgas, with its strategic location, port infrastructure, and regional dominance, fits this trajectory perfectly. There is also a subtle political nuance: Lukoil president Vagit Alekperov is ethnically Azerbaijani. While not decisive, it adds an unexpected layer of familiarity that may grease the wheels of negotiation for SOCAR to acquire a stake in Lukoil’s Bulgarian refinery.

Why Washington Might Welcome SOCAR’s Acquisition of Burgas

From the U.S. perspective, a SOCAR-led solution clicks several strategic boxes. First, it pulls a major refining asset out of the Kremlin’s orbit and blocks a sale to intermediaries that could quietly preserve Moscow’s influence in a key NATO member country like Bulgaria. Second, it also reinforces a major US partner — Azerbaijan — that has managed to maintain working relationships with the West, Türkiye, and also Russia. The bottom line is it offers a clean sanctions-compliance win without requiring U.S. or EU ownership, sidestepping the political backlash such a move would trigger inside Bulgaria.

Potential Challenges: Why This Move Is High-Risk for SOCAR

Several formidable challenges exist for SOCAR should it pursue a stake in the Burgas refinery. First, its balance sheet is already stretched thin after the Italiana Petroli acquisition. Purchasing Burgas would require a high price, substantial working-capital buffers, and major modernization spending. Second, the refinery was built around the processing of Russian Urals blend crude, now banned under EU sanctions, meaning operations based on Iraqi, Kazakh CPC, Mediterranean grades, or Azeri Light would be more complicated and ultimately less profitable. Modernization CAPEX alone could reach anywhere between $348 to $700 million (to improve crude flexibility, environmental units, and logistics systems). Any sale would play out against the backdrop of Bulgaria’s volatile domestic politics, where polarization, pro-Russian media narratives, and bureaucratic friction are almost inevitable.

Last but not least, the operational transition would be demanding, as Lukoil’s supply, trading, blending, and distribution networks are deeply embedded in the refinery’s day-to-day operations. And beyond all of this, a new asset brings long-term accountability: refining margins are notoriously cyclical, and regardless of shifting political enthusiasm in Washington, SOCAR would be responsible for a carbon-intensive, capital-heavy EU refinery for decades.

Outlook

What does this all mean? A SOCAR-led acquisition of Lukoil Neftochim Burgas could yield a rare multivector win: for Bulgaria, for the United States, for the EU, and for Azerbaijan. But it is a highrisk undertaking that would stretch SOCAR financially, operationally, and politically.

Whether SOCAR moves forward may depend on a shared strategic calculation across Baku, Ankara, and Washington: Is this the moment for Azerbaijan to embed itself more deeply in Europe’s energy infrastructure — and to begin rewriting the downstream energy map that Russia has shaped in Bulgaria for more than three decades? If SOCAR were to secure a stake in Burgas, it would significantly curb Russian influence in Bulgaria while also rewarding Baku for its political support for the U.S.-backed peace process with Armenia and the proposed Trump Route for International Peace (TRIP).

Footnote:

This article was originally published on The Saratoga Foundation website November 17 2025

https://www.saratoga-foundation.org/p/breaking-moscows-energy-grip-on-bulgaria

The post Breaking Moscow’s Energy Grip on Bulgaria: The Lukoil Crisis and SOCAR’s Strategic Opening appeared first on Fuld & Co.

Cash changes everything

Under BP, Castrol was never broken but it was capital-constrained. Cash was flowing upstream, into LNG, buybacks, and balance-sheet priorities. Lubricants were solid, but not fully fed. That showed up as delayed capacity upgrades, slower portfolio refreshes, uneven go-to-market momentum in growth regions.

Enter Stonepeak.

With Stonepeak, expect:

• more working capital flexibility,
• capex into blending, packaging, and regional hubs,
• heavier spend on branding, OEM ties, and channel incentives.

Translation for competitors: the “capital-starved Castrol” era is over.

Pressure across all lubricant segments

A recapitalized Castrol can now push on all fronts at once:

• Passenger car oils → synthetics, EV fluids, premium branding
• Commercial vehicle lubes → fleets, drain intervals, TCO stories
• Industrial lubricants → efficiency, sustainability, process optimization

For competitors that benefited from Castrol’s slower execution – especially regional independents and mid-tier multinationals – that breathing room is disappearing fast.

Where the pressure shows up first

• Europe & U.S.: Expect defense of premium share, not volume. That puts pressure on Shell, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, and FUCHS in high-margin niches.
• India & China: Capital matters here: distribution density, OEM access, compliance, marketing. A well-funded Castrol is especially dangerous in India, where brand still moves volume.
• South America: Fragmented markets + strong branding = opportunity. Expect share grabs where local players lack scale or balance sheets.
• Africa: More selective. Likely targeted bets rather than a continent-wide push.

The bigger signal to the industry

This deal sends a clear message: lubricants are not a neglected side business anymore, at least outside the oil-major balance-sheet logic.

For competitors, that means:

• no more counting on Castrol’s execution gaps,
• rising capex and marketing expectations,
• brand, service, and data matter as much as the molecule.

Bottom line

Stonepeak doesn’t need to reinvent Castrol. Simply putting capital and focus back into the business is enough to make Castrol a tougher competitor, especially in India, China, and premium Western markets.

The post What Stonepeak buying Castrol’s 65% really means for competitors appeared first on Fuld & Co.

1. ​”Disruptive innovations create jobs, whereas efficiency innovations destroy them.” — Clay Christensen 
2. ​“The more things change, the more they stay the same.” — Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr, 19th century critic (Translated from the French: “Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose”) 

​I attended the conference and ran two sessions alongside my colleague, Fuld & Company’s Chief Knowledge Officer Mike Ratcliffe. One was a half-day workshop on Scenario Planning, and one was a talk on how to leverage AI to learn from your competitors’ mistakes to create and drive winning products and services.  

​Even before the conference, it has been clear for some time that technology has been impacting the research sphere. In the competitive intelligence world, providers of technology-powered information gathering services have been trying to replace human data-gathering, but none of these initiatives have so far come close to driving away the need for humans. Some of the newer platforms are terrific, although these are managed as subscription platforms, leveraged by humans. 

​So where does that leave CI professionals? 

​First, let’s consider the quote above from Clay Christensen, my first year Operations professor at Harvard Business School.  

• ​Have AI tools created efficiency? Yes.  
• ​Will they continue to do so? Absolutely.  
• ​Does this mean that AI will destroy CI jobs? Well, the jury is still out on that.  

​As we presented at SCIP, leveraging AI to innovatively gain new insights in ways that were impossible before will actually create new jobs. At a minimum, these disruptions will drive the need to maintain knowledgeable experts to understand what is relevant to explore, and how to interpret the power that AI brings. 

​Second, let’s consider the above quote from Alphonse Karr. The role of the CI professional remains as critical as ever. New technologies that are disrupting the way we work and the products and services we sell need to be monitored — who will advise product managers and strategy teams on the way forward? It’s the CI professional who is best positioned to assist. And as of yet, there is no AI replacement that can supersede classic primary intelligence: up-to-date, verbal insights drawn from expertly-led conversations. 

​Our interactions with attendees at IntelliCon have reaffirmed the imperative for Competitive Intelligence. The ways in which AI will innovate the techniques to drive both efficiencies and insights is ever evolving. 

​Learn more about Fuld’s Competitive Intelligence and Scenario Planning services.

​Download Fuld’s Early Warning and Scenario Planning Toolkit 

​Watch Beyond Sales & Strategy: How to Leverage Competitive Intelligence Across Your Entire Business 

The post ​Why Competitive Intelligence still needs the human edge  appeared first on Fuld & Co.

During these conversations some common challenges emerged, providing a window into how teams are adapting in a demanding environment. Firms are focused on how to differentiate themselves in investment banking, using technology more effectively, and expanding their networks amid heightened competition and uncertain timelines.  

This article outlines the primary concerns raised and offers actionable insights for investment banking leaders. 

1. Brand differentiation: Standing out in a crowded market 

Bankers frequently asked, “How do I differentiate my firm in a sea of advisors?”  

Winning mandates requires a compelling, cohesive investment banking brand positioning strategy that resonates with clients, which firms are addressing by: 

• Crafting targeted content 

Developing sector-specific insights or investment theses to highlight unique expertise, such as short founder videos, thought leadership, or newsletters. 

• Embracing visual storytelling 

Moving beyond text-heavy teasers and CIMs to engage clients with animated teasers, infographics, and short videos. 

• Standardizing branding 

Using consistent brand templates for pitch decks, websites, and newsletters to project a polished, unified identity. 

–> Differentiation hinges on delivering consistent, value-driven messaging that sets a firm apart in a competitive landscape.  

2. Efficient execution: Harnessing technology with purpose 

The hype around artificial intelligence (AI) has shifted to practical applications, with firms asking, “Which use cases deliver real value?”  

To modernize their M&A process, firms are exploring AI tools for M&A and looking at practical AI use cases in investment banking to: 

When AI is integrated into well-defined processes, it is yielding 30–40% efficiency gains across the deal lifecycle. 

–> AI delivers the greatest impact when applied to specific, repeatable tasks, freeing up time for teams to focus on high-value activities. 

3. Buyer/seller expansion: Refreshing networks 

Bankers expressed frustration with stale buyer lists, noting, “We keep going back to the same buyers.”  

Expanding networks is essential to uncover new opportunities, particularly in niche sectors. Firms are tackling this by: 

• Re-mapping buyer universes 

Using data platforms to build targeted buyer lists for M&A based on deal activity, fund strategies, and sector relevance. 

• Enhancing outreach 

Personalizing communication to reach decision-makers and tracking responsiveness to refine strategies. 

• Tapping emerging sponsors 

Identifying new players through analysis of market trends and investment patterns. 

–> A dynamic, data-driven approach to buyer coverage strengthens deal pipelines and unlocks untapped opportunities. 

Looking ahead 

Investment banks are navigating a competitive landscape with creativity and resilience. By focusing on differentiation, purposeful technology adoption, and network expansion, firms can position themselves for success.  

At Fuld, we partner with IB firms to turn these strategies into reality, significantly enhancing brand impact and bringing 30-40% deal efficiency and over 50% cost efficiencies. 

The post Inside the deal making mindset: Lessons from 40+ investment banks  appeared first on Fuld & Co.

The discussions I had highlighted a number of common challenges faced by private credit firms such as resource constraints, prolonged fundraising cycles, and a growing push towards specialization in a competitive market.  

Below, I outline the top concerns of private credit firms and share actionable insights for industry leaders to help them overcome these challenges. 

1. Bandwidth crunch: Creating capacity for growth 

Lean teams are thinly stretched. They have to juggle live deals with portfolio monitoring, investor relations and beating competitors to close a deal. One recurring comment I heard was “Where’s my Private Credit associate when I need them?”, reflecting the pressure of growing mandates without enough people with an in-depth understanding of the private credit business. Too often, they have to work with investment banking or private equity associates who face a steep learning curve to get up to speed on the fundamentals of private credit.  

Firms are addressing this by: 

• Leveraging flexible resources 

Exploring AI use cases in private credit operations, from financial model reviews and data pulls to desk research and KPI tracking, allowing human intelligence to focus on closing deals.  

• Streamlining and tailoring processes  

Prioritizing tailored thinking and quality control for each deal, shifting associates away from mundane tasks. 

• Enhancing monitoring 

Using standardized templates for portfolio reporting to improve consistency and efficiency. 

–> By applying strategic resource allocation, custom thinking at the deal level, and process optimization – the core of how to scale a private credit firm – firms can scale without overextending their teams. 

2. Fundraising pressure: Navigating longer cycles 

General partners (GPs) noted that limited partners (LPs) are taking longer to commit to deals, alongside increasingly rigorous due diligence processes. Fundraising timelines are also expanding, requiring firms to become more proactive. 

Firms are responding with: 

• Earlier preparation 

A more structured approach to how to prepare for private credit fundraising, including developing materials, models, and data rooms ahead of LP outreach. 

• Sharpened investment theses : Clearly articulating their strengths in sourcing, structuring, or relationship networks to stand out in a crowded market. 

• Strategic LP targeting : Building outreach lists based on fund strategy, check size, and prior engagement history. 

• Aligned reporting: Creating templates that address LP priorities, such as pipeline 

–> Proactive preparation and a compelling, focused narrative can accelerate fundraising in a competitive environment. 

3. Need to specialize: Going deeper in select sectors 

Rather than casting a wide net, firms are focusing on targeted private credit deal sourcing strategies concentrating on two or three sectors where they have a sourcing or underwriting edge. This enables proactive origination and strengthens investor narratives. 

Firms are pursuing this by: 

• Developing sector-specific primers 

Analyzing trends, tailwinds, and regulatory shifts to build internal expertise. 

• Creating market maps 

Identifying borrowers, intermediaries, and co-investment partners to enhance origination. 

• Using screening scorecards 

Qualifying inbound opportunities quickly with sector-specific criteria. 

• Tracking Competitive Intelligence:  

Monitoring other lenders to refine positioning and identify gaps. 

Some firms are also building mini-databases of borrowers and referral sources, enabling monthly deal flow tracking and a confident go-to-market strategy. 

–> Deep sector specialization fosters a stronger deal flow and resonates with both LPs and borrowers. 

Looking ahead 

Private credit firms are adapting to a challenging market with resilience, focusing on smarter resource use, sharper positioning, and specialized strategies. By addressing bandwidth constraints, streamlining fundraising, and deepening sector expertise, firms can stay competitive.  

The post What’s top of mind for private credit firms: Insights from 50+ market leaders  appeared first on Fuld & Co.

Two to three decades ago, major market disruption occurred over the span of decades. Today, this velocity of change has accelerated dramatically, with major shifts happening within just a few years, if not months, signaling a quantum shift in the dynamics of markets. This acceleration is reshaping how companies approach strategic planning in the energy sector, particularly in complex, interconnected sectors like the global energy market, where leaders face the dual challenge of managing both the accelerating pace of change and its growing complexity. New entrants are appearing virtually overnight, driven by radical technologies that weren’t even on the radar 20 years ago, including AI, autonomous processes, and cloud computing. These forces are emerging alongside more traditional market pressures such as tariffs, military conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and shifting energy market regulations. 

Velocity of Change in the Global Energy Market 

In response, businesses need to reassess the strategic planning tools they use and identify those which will help counter these challenges. Long-range Scenario Planning, pioneered by Shell in 1965, has been an essential tool for energy businesses for over three decades, but today, when disruptive technologies can emerge and scale in under five years, looking 5 to 25 years ahead offers limited value, potentially even rendering long-term analysis obsolete. Instead, markets at risk from radical new technologies need to start focusing their future thinking on a timeframe of 2 to 5 years. As short-term strategy tools, strategy workshops can provide agility without sacrificing depth. 

Technology-driven disruption 

The results of these highly disruptive technologies are likely to be profound. GenAI, for example, is already impacting the demand for lower-level entry jobs, with reductions of 20%—40% being reported across industries.  In the short-term, the loss of these types of jobs is likely to reduce the demand for personal cars, and increase demand for far cheaper forms of mobility. In the medium-term, possible solutions could be the Robotaxi, cheap self-driving micro cars, or electric bikes. But will this in turn accelerate the switch to EVs and away from gasoline or diesel drivetrains, radically impacting global supply chains for ICE technology? The impact of GenAI on the energy sector goes beyond automation—it’s reshaping workforce needs, mobility demand, and supply chains. This is just one example of the many end-markets the energy sector serves, each with its own rapidly shifting demands. 

Charting a course through uncertainty 

To navigate market uncertainty, many businesses are turning to “Strategy Workshops” as a solution. These are shorter-term, practical sessions that help leaders reassess where and how to invest in the near term by mapping emerging market segments, identifying disruptive forces, and pinpointing areas most likely to yield competitive advantage over the next 2 to 5 years. While relatively easy to set up and run, they also deliver high-value results. 

Strategy workshops in practice  

In preparation for a workshop, a Briefing Book that combines internal market knowledge, competitor analysis of evolving plans, and insights from primary interviews with internal and external experts. This helps build a list of potential target segments, the driving forces behind them, and the companies currently focusing on these areas. During the workshop, individual teams then evaluate the future importance of each segment, prioritize those most relevant to the business, and develop targeted strategic actions.  

Unlike War Games which are designed to focus on specific competitors, Strategy Workshops focus on individual market segments, asking where the most valuable opportunities lie and how to capture them. Their strength lies in enabling broad 360-degree thinking that goes beyond traditional corporate walls and encourages engagement with external forces. They also allow leadership teams to rapidly stress test strategies and realign plans in response to fast-moving technological developments and disrupters. 

Because of their relatively simple structure, Strategy Workshops can be set up quickly and run on an ad hoc basis — particularly useful when a new technology suddenly starts to gain traction in an unexpected part of the market. 

To learn more about how to design and run a strategy workshop tailored to your market, get in touch. We’d be happy to walk you through the process. 

More about our workshops 

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If there’s one thing my recent trip across the US made clear, it’s that private credit is under intense pressure. From boardrooms in Chicago to coffee chats in Miami, I heard that firms are feeling the squeeze—competition is fierce, teams are stretched thin, fundraising is dragging on, and differentiation is harder than ever. 

And yet, innovation is happening. Firms are adapting, sharpening their strategies, and finding smart ways to stand out. Here are five big takeaways from my time on the road—lessons that could make all the difference for private credit leaders looking to navigate what’s next. 

1. Standing Out in a Fierce Market: Differentiation Is Survival

In New York, a managing director put it bluntly: “The market’s a bloodbath—everyone’s chasing the same deals.” 

That sentiment echoed in every city. With new players entering and established firms ramping up, competition has hit a boiling point. To win, firms have to bring something different to the table—be it expertise, speed, or access. 

A few stand-out approaches I came across: 

A team focused on distressed retail closed $150M last quarter by leveraging deep restructuring expertise 

In Boston, a partner built exclusive ties with regional banks and brokers, generating 20 high-quality leads every month 

A healthcare-focused group published industry whitepapers and started getting invites to pitch to top-tier LPs 

Another firm used advanced analytics to cut due diligence time in half, winning deals with faster term sheets. 

Key Insight: In a saturated market, having a sharp edge—whether it’s niche knowledge, speed, or relationships—is what keeps you in the game. 

2. Breaking the Bandwidth Bottleneck: Scaling Smarter

In Chicago, one partner half-joked, “Where’s my private credit associate when I need them?” 

Smaller teams are juggling a lot: building models, managing portfolios, dealing with investors—all while trying to stay competitive. The work is complex and specialized, and new hires take time to get up to speed. 

But some firms are tackling the strain with smart solutions: 

Automating model reviews and KPI tracking saved one team 30% of their time. 

Standardizing initial screening templates helped another group cut two weeks off due diligence. 

Real-time dashboards gave portfolio managers early warning signs, improving oversight. 

Key Insight: Tech and process improvements don’t just save time—they give firms breathing room to focus on what matters most. 

3. Mastering the Fundraising Marathon: Building Trust in a Sceptical Market

One GP I spoke to didn’t sugarcoat it: “LPs are digging deeper, and commitments take forever.” 

Fundraising cycles are stretching to 18+ months. LPs want more transparency, more proof of expertise, and more reasons to believe. A good story—backed by data—makes all the difference. 

Here’s how some firms are rising to the challenge: 

One team prepped materials and data rooms six months ahead and secured a $200M pension fund commitment in three months. 

In Philadelphia, a GP leaned into their sourcing edge in manufacturing and closed $150M with a family office. 

Another team curated a target LP list by fund size and sector fit, boosting their success rate by 25%. 

By adopting LP-friendly templates, one group cut follow-up questions by 40%. 

Key Insight: Preparation, focus, and clarity—those are the traits LPs are rewarding right now. 

4. Doubling Down on Specialization: Owning the Niche

In Miami, a fund manager didn’t mince words: “Generalists are getting crushed.” 

Firms are narrowing their focus to a few sectors where they have a real edge—whether in sourcing, underwriting, or both. That focus isn’t just helping with deal flow; it’s also making LPs more confident. 

Some smart plays I saw: 

A firm built their strategy around energy transition trends and regulatory tailwinds, leading to a $300M fund concept. 

Another created a healthcare borrower database and closed three deals in six months. 

Sector-specific scorecards helped one group filter out 70% of inbound leads, zeroing in on high-potential targets. 

By tracking rival activity, a tech-focused team uncovered gaps in SaaS financing—and built a $100M pipeline. 

Key Insight: The deeper your sector knowledge, the stronger your results—and your story to LPs. 

5. Building a Powerful Brand: Trust and Visibility Matter

A GP in Miami told me, “Our brand is what gets us in the room before the deal even starts.” 

A strong brand builds trust. It opens doors—with LPs, borrowers, and intermediaries. And in a crowded market, it’s more important than ever. 

Firms are taking brand-building seriously: 

One launched a podcast that now draws 5,000 listeners a month—and fresh LP interest. 

Sponsoring roundtables helped another group secure two co-investment deals. 

An LP portal with real-time data built trust and cut reporting demands by 30%. 

A team focused their website, pitch decks, and thought leadership around logistics lending—building a unified, memorable story. 

Key Insight: Brand is more than marketing. It’s your reputation—and it’s a strategic asset. 

Looking Ahead 

After six weeks on the road, what sticks with me most is how resilient and resourceful these firms are. Whether it’s the Chicago partner improving workflows or the Miami GP building a standout brand, private credit is full of smart operators rising to the moment. 

At Fuld & Company, we help firms meet these challenges head-on—whether that’s sharpening their positioning, streamlining operations, or zeroing in on high-potential sectors. 

The road ahead won’t be easy. But with the right strategy, focus, and mindset, private credit firms can not only survive—but thrive. 

The post Reflections from the Road: Navigating the New Era of Private Credit appeared first on Fuld & Co.

The event wasn’t just about showcasing the latest technologies. What stood out for me was the candor in the discussions: real-world challenges, risks, and lessons on what it actually takes to unlock value from AI. The blend of optimism and pragmatism made this year’s event particularly inspiring. 

Key Insights from Big Data LDN 

1. Agentic AI runs on strong foundations 
Voice-driven and agent-based AgenticAI may feel like science fiction, but they only succeed when the underlying DataPlatforms are fast, reliable, and well-architected. Without strong plumbing, the “intelligence” collapses. 

2. Context is the hardest nut to crack 
Enterprise AI rarely fails because of algorithms. It fails because solutions lack context. The most successful initiatives are those tightly aligned with the business environment, commercial strategy, and competitive realities — not generic “data strategies.” 

3. Commercial alignment is critical 
You don’t need a standalone “data strategy.” Data and AI strategies must flow directly from the business and commercial strategy. The closer the alignment, the greater the value delivered. 

4. Data readiness remains the #1 barrier 
It’s estimated that 95% of AI initiatives fail within 12 months. The culprit? Data that isn’t production-ready. Poor DataQuality, weak observability, and fragile pipelines continue to be the Achilles’ heel of enterprise AI. 

5. Governance must be platform-agnostic 
Effective DataGovernance cannot be tied to any one platform or tool. Governance must be independent, trusted, and embedded across the organisation, ensuring that oversight and accountability work regardless of technology stack. 

6. Culture beats tools 
Fancy dashboards don’t guarantee adoption. A shared DataCulture, a common language, and deep collaboration with business teams are far more important for lasting success. Tools help — but culture wins. 

7. Sustainability in AI is moving centre stage 
One GenAI query consumes the same energy as a lightbulb running for ten seconds. Multiply that by billions, and the environmental impact is enormous. Responsible organizations are beginning to track carbon costs alongside accuracy (for example, using tools like CodeCarbon) and are redefining what “success” means in AI. 

8. Scaling AI is still a major challenge 
Even when prototypes succeed, many client-facing AI solutions stumble at scale. Common issues include: 

• Pulling the wrong data 

• AI-generated code introducing hidden bugs 

• Hallucinations slipping through without human oversight 

• Vector databases lagging on updates 

• Small configuration changes causing large swings in outcomes 

This challenge goes beyond hallucinations — it’s about shifting inputs, evolving pipelines, and the non-deterministic nature of modern AI. 

9. Humans remain central in the AI world 
AI can process data 8X faster and make insights accessible to non-technical users. But ResponsibleAI demands human involvement — to provide oversight, apply context, and ensure systems remain grounded in reality. 

10. A Cosmic Perspective
The highlight of the event for me was the closing keynote by Brian Cox, who drew parallels between AI, big data, and the cosmos. His reflections were a timely reminder: 

• Will AI take over human intelligence? No. 

• Will it discover new theories like Einstein’s relativity? No — not for many years to come. 

AI is a powerful tool — but it is here to augment human intelligence, not replace it. The real opportunity is to use it wisely: to make businesses sharper, decisions faster, and lives easier.

Final Reflection 
The overarching lesson from Big Data LDN 2025 was clear: to win with AI, data must become a competitive advantage. 

Technology alone will not deliver results. Success requires: 

• Strong and resilient data foundations 

• Commercial alignment, not siloed strategies 

• Platform-independent governance 

• A culture where business and data teams pull together 

At Fuld, we are helping clients address these very challenges — turning data into a driver of competitive advantage, and AI into a source of tangible value. 

The post Reflections from Big Data LDN 2025: What Will Shape the Next Wave of AI & Analytics?  appeared first on Fuld & Co.

​Shell, once set to build one of Europe’s largest advanced biofuel plants in Rotterdam to turn waste feedstocks into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel, first suspended construction in mid-2024 and by September 2025 had abandoned the project altogether, citing a lack of competitiveness. BP followed suit, canceling its own Rotterdam facility and shelving projects at Kwinana in Australia, Lingen in Germany, and Cherry Point in the U.S. Instead, Shell is doubling down on its Brazil ethanol joint venture (BP Bunge Bioenergia) and shifting toward lower-cost co-processing within existing refineries. Its earlier target of producing 100,000 barrels per day of biofuels by 2030 has been quietly scaled back. Other majors have likewise retreated. Chevron furloughed workers at its Oeding biodiesel plant in Germany amid profitability pressures.  

​The retreat ultimately boils down to economics and corporate discipline. Full-scale biofuel plants have proven commercially unfeasible under current market conditions: volatile feedstock costs, thin or negative margins, and regulatory uncertainty all undermine profitability. At the same time, international oil companies are becoming leaner, divesting non-core assets, and prioritizing projects with faster payback and higher returns.  

​In this environment, capital is flowing back to conventional oil and gas, while biofuels are relegated to the margins and kept alive through trading, co-processing initiatives, or joint ventures rather than multibillion-dollar standalone builds.  

​One notable exception is TotalEnergies. While it has also scaled back in certain areas, the company has more decisively integrated biofuels into its downstream strategy by converting conventional refineries into either full biofuel production sites or co-processing facilities. Its La Mède refinery was converted into a biorefinery in 2019, and its Grandpuits complex outside Paris is being repurposed into a zero-crude platform focused on biofuels, bioplastics, and recycling. This approach has allowed TotalEnergies to maintain momentum in biofuels where peers are retreating, albeit in a more cautious, site-specific way. 

​What’s Next?  

​The withdrawal of international oil companies matters because they were the actors best positioned to scale biofuels globally. With their capital strength, infrastructure, and trading networks, IOCs could have driven the kind of industrial build-out needed to push costs down and bring sustainable fuels into mainstream markets. That opportunity is now slipping away. Without their participation, the sector risks remain fragmented–dominated by niche players facing the same profitability and feedstock challenges–but without the balance sheets to weather downturns or drive economies of scale.  

​Biofuels are unlikely to disappear, but their trajectory has shifted from a vision of mass adoption to one of limited, policy-driven niches—such as aviation or marine fuels where few alternatives exist. For the broader energy transition, this retreat underscores a sobering reality: decarbonization will not be evenly spread across all technologies.  

​Where economics and scale don’t align, even strong climate narratives can falter. The IOCs’ pullback signals that the heavy lifting may now fall to governments, airlines, shipping firms, and specialized producers—but without the majors’ heft, scalability and cost reductions will be far harder to achieve. TotalEnergies’ refinery conversions show one possible pathway, but so far, it remains the exception rather than the rule.

​Fuld & Company provides energy market intelligence and strategy consulting to help global energy players navigate the evolving energy transition landscape. 

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Three days. Endless ideas. One defining message. 
BioTechX 2025 in Basel reaffirmed that we’re living through a pivotal moment in the life sciences, one where data, AI, and innovation are not separate forces, but deeply intertwined drivers of change. 

Across the sessions, the message was unmistakable: AI is no longer the future of drug discovery — it is the now. 

From target identification and molecular design to clinical trials and real-world evidence, AI is transforming every step of the drug development journey. Data is now as valuable as compounds, and the ability to connect, interpret, and act on that data is redefining how science advances and how decisions are made. 

Building the Foundations for AI-Driven Decisions 
Pharma today operates between two realities: 

• A data-hungry early R&D environment, where uncertainty is high and information is fragmented. 

• A data-rich real-world landscape, filled with clinical outcomes, electronic health records, and patient experiences. 

The challenge and the opportunity lie in connecting these worlds seamlessly. That starts with strong data foundations: 

• Ensuring data quality at source, so accuracy and compliance are built in early 

• Creating a single source of truth for reliability and consistency 

• Strengthening metadata management to make data discoverable and usable 

• Adding semantic layers that simplify search and accelerate insight 

• Building interoperable ecosystems that allow data to flow seamlessly across research, clinical, and commercial functions 

When these elements align, AI can truly deliver, enhancing accuracy, accelerating timelines, and providing multidimensional insights that drive smarter decisions. 

Disruption and Transformation 
This transformation is not being driven by Big Pharma alone. AI-native biotech startups are emerging as powerful disruptors, using data-first strategies to shorten R&D timelines and tackle highly specific challenges, from rare diseases to precision medicine. 

At the same time, cloud-based platforms, synthetic biology, and digital twins are accelerating hypothesis testing and enabling real-time collaboration across global teams. 

But as innovation accelerates, new challenges emerge: 

• Integrating AI into legacy systems and workflows 

• Upskilling teams to collaborate effectively with machine learning models 

• Navigating evolving regulatory frameworks for algorithm-driven decisions 

• Scaling pilots into enterprise-wide, compliant solutions 

Unlocking the full potential of AI in drug discovery will require more than new technology — it calls for organizational transformation: fresh thinking, cross-functional collaboration, and leadership that can bridge science and strategy. 

A New Era of Collaboration 
One of the most inspiring shifts at BioTechX 2025 was the growing democratization of AI and data. 

Patients are becoming active participants in their health journeys, empowered by access to their own data. Clinicians, researchers, and data scientists are co-creating insights that accelerate understanding and improve outcomes. 

Sessions on Population Genomics, Real-World Evidence, and Precision Diagnostics showcased how connected ecosystems are evolving, linking data, people, and purpose to drive truly patient-centred innovation. 

The Takeaway 
Three days, countless conversations, and one clear takeaway: The future of healthcare won’t be defined by technology alone, but by how intelligently we connect data, decisions, and people. 

As AI, data integration, and digital transformation continue to converge, we stand at the edge of a new era — one where innovation is faster, insights are deeper, and therapies reach patients sooner. The challenge now is not whether AI can transform life sciences, but how ready organizations are to harness its full potential. 

At Fuld, we believe true AI readiness goes beyond technology. It starts with the foundations — data quality, governance, and operating models — that enable AI to deliver impact responsibly. Our mission is to help life sciences organizations bridge vision and execution, transforming data into intelligence and intelligence into action. 

The post Reflecting on BioTechX 2025 — Where Data, AI, and Innovation Converge appeared first on Fuld & Co.

​Historical Context and Development 

​The discovery of REEs goes back to the late 18th century when they were first discovered in Sweden.  By 1900, all 17 REEs had been identified and added into the periodic table. Other deposits had been found in Russia, and Norway and over the 20^th century, small concentrations were found all over the world, but the major discovery was Mongolia. This was found by luck in 1927 in a government mapping of iron ore deposits as part of the National Geological Survey. Samples were sent to Beijing for analysis, and the rest is history. 

​It is important to understand that REEs fall into two groups – light and heavy.  Both have very different properties due to their internal atomic structures.  The resulting properties of heavy, or HREEs, give them high value in many products utilizing their unique electron properties from color TVs in the 1960s, to magnets in the 1980s, and EVs and robotics in the 2000s.   

​The issue with HREEs is they are far more difficult to refine than light REEs and also far less abundant.  The massive deposits of HREEs found in Mongolia accounts for nearly 90% of the known extractable deposits. So, if any REEs deserve the title of “rare”, it is HREEs.   

​China has been openly aware of the economic power of its monopoly over REES for many years.  Back in 2010, Japan detained a Chinese fishing boat captain near the Senkaku-Diaoyu Islands. The China claimed these islands were theirs and the captain had every right to be fishing there. China’s response was to immediately impose an unofficial embargo on REEs to Japan. This was quickly resolved politically with the captain being released and normality returning in two months.  

​Action and Reaction 

​In the intervening 15 years, the demand for HREEs has only grown stronger as the world has increasingly become dominated by technology and electrons. The probability that, if pushed, China would play its HREE card again is, therefore, nearly 100%. 

​Manufacturers in the West and Japan have not been blind to this threat and have been considering strategies to minimize the impact of China’s monopoly. For instance, they have been trying to: 

• ​Develop magnet alloys, processes and end-products that minimize or eliminate Dy or Tb 

• ​Focus on products that minimize the need for high quality magnets, like hybrids 

• ​Find ways of substituting LREEs for HREEs 

• ​Build supply flexibility into supply chains to minimize targeted Chinese export bans 

• ​Maximize recycling 

• ​Maximize stockpiling Dy and Tb to handle short-term supply issues 

• ​Shift to long-term sources of Dy and Tb outside of China 

• ​Do deals with Chinese auto manufactures, like BYD or Geely, who have open access the Mongolian HREEs

​However, no magic solution has been found to date and managing multiple strategic options is something that traditional manufacturers find very difficult. 

​ 

​In this swirl of uncertainty, the one thing that seems certain is that companies with a critical reliance on HREEs must have strategic contingency plans. They need to work through options like those above and decide which ones need to focus on. This will mean developing scenarios and assigning probabilities to each, plus developing a monitoring system that can update these probabilities and, hence, what should be the best strategic focus of the company. 

​We, in Fuld, have tools that can help, such as Scenario Planning, Early Warning Systems and Strategy Workshops. Please contact us if you would like more details … DON’T WAIT! 

​ China and Monopoly Power  

The post ​Are Rare Earth Elements Rare? NO, but some are rarer than others! appeared first on Fuld & Co.

​Finding and producing hydrocarbons in some of the world’s toughest geologies has relied on breakthroughs in seismic imaging, horizontal drilling, and advanced chemical engineering. Exporting them has required building some of the most complex logistical systems on the planet—pipelines spanning continents, LNG terminals, and vast shipping fleets. Without technology, the oil and gas business would not exist.  

​Over the past two decades, digitalization has transformed the industry again. BP’s use of digital twins has cut unplanned downtime by up to 30%, while Chevron’s predictive maintenance programs save hundreds of millions of dollars annually. Subsurface imaging datasets are now measured in petabytes, and machine learning is applied across exploration, production, refining, and trading. McKinsey estimates digital and analytics could unlock $1 trillion in value by 2035 for the sector. 

​The industry’s identity is now shifting even further even toward becoming technology companies. Every well, pipeline, and refinery is bristling with IoT-enabled sensors. Increasingly all sensors are being linked to central database though the cloud, giving AI and advanced analytics access to them and into real-time energy trading, carbon accounting, and efficiency tracking. According to Deloitte, oil and gas firms are on track to spend over 20% of capital budgets on digital transformation by the end of this decade, a sign that the future lies as much in algorithms as in engineering. This is a massive amount of money, but when you look at the exponential growth in the power of AI with GenAi and the opportunity it offers, it is perhaps not surprising. 

​ The implications are profound: 

• ​Competitive edge will hinge on data mastery. The winners won’t just be those with the best reservoirs, but those who can harness data to optimize every molecule, every shipment, every ton of CO₂ avoided. 
• ​Business models are shifting. Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies already generate billions in annual profit from energy trading and digital services—in some cases rivaling traditional upstream earnings. The broader energy-as-a-service market is projected to grow from $75 billion in 2022 to $140 billion by 2030, showing how services are scaling alongside molecules. 
• ​The transition accelerates. As energy systems become more diversified and decentralized, data is the connective tissue holding them together and GenAi will be the blood coursing through their corporate veins. 

​In short, oil and gas companies have always been more than resource companies. First, they were manufacturing companies… they drilled, refined, packaged and marketed. Rockfeller built the Standard Oil by selling kerosine in tins all around the world. Today, oil and gas companies have become technology companies with the hardware of steel and electronics as useful infrastructure. And as their products evolve, the end game is clear: the business is moving from selling molecules to understanding how to use software to maximize sales and profits.

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