Physician shortage: What will the hospitalist shortage look like in 10 years?

New data show that the country’s physician shortage will continue to rise, leaving a gap of nearly 140,000 physicians by 2038. But some specialties—and some regions of the country—will actually have a surplus of physicians.

Data from the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis show that the physician workforce will go from a projected shortage of 113,380 physicians in 2028 to 141,160 in 2038. That gap between the number of physicians the country needs and actually has will grow from 11% in 2028 to 12% in 2038.

While the U.S. will face a shortage of more than 141,000 physicians in 2038, the problem will be most acute in several southern states. Florida, for example, will face a shortage of more than 32,000 physicians by 2038, and Texas will see a shortage of 24,450.

Those data reflect the trend that nonmetropolitan parts of the country will continue to see the greatest physician shortages. Those areas will have only 42% of the physician workforce they need (a shortage of 58%) compared to metro areas, which will face a shortage of 5% by 2038.

Physician shortage by specialty

Thirty of the 35 physician specialties profiled in the report are projected to have shortages in 2038. Five specialties are projected to have a surplus of physicians. Here’s a look at the top five in each category.

Five specialties with biggest shortages in 2038

Vascular surgery: 66%.

Ophthalmology: 72%.

Thoracic surgery: 73%.

Plastic surgery: 74%.

Family medicine: 76%.

Five specialties with a surplus of physicians in 2038

Emergency medicine: 116%.

Critical care/pulmonology: 112%.

Endocrinology: 109%.

Neonatology: 106%.

Neurology: 104%.

Hospitalist shortage

In 2038, the data say there will be a projected 39,590 hospitalists. That will leave a shortage of 11,380, meaning that the country will have 78% of the hospitalists it needs, or a shortage of 22%.

For 2023, by comparison, the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis says there was a shortage of 2,860 hospitalists, or enough to meet 93% of the nation’s need. By 2026, the shortage of hospitalists had already grown to 5,350, meeting 88% of the nation’s need. While the shortage continues to grow in raw numbers through 2038, the gap as a percentage hovers around the high 80 percent mark.

In 2038, the biggest shortage of hospitalists will be in Florida; the state will have 2,500 out of 4,030 hospitalists it needs, or 62%. Texas will have the second biggest shortage, with 2,860 out of 4,180 hospitalists it needs, or 68%.

Percentage-wise, states with the biggest shortage in 2038 will include Mississippi (with 48% of needed hospitalists), Oklahoma (49%) Kentucky (52%) and Alabama (51%).

Vermont, on the other hand, will have 130 hospitalists when it needs 90, giving the state the biggest surplus (144%). Connecticut comes in a close second, with physician workforce projections saying the state will have 133% of needed hospitalists (640 out of 480).

Other states with projected surpluses of hospitalists in 2038 include Massachusetts (128%), Hawaii (110%), New York (107%) and North Dakota (100%).

Physician supply by specialty in 2038 (percent of projected need)

All physicians: 88%.

Vascular surgery: 66%.

Ophthalmology: 72%.

Thoracic surgery: 73%.

Plastic surgery: 74%.

Family medicine: 76%.

Hospital medicine: 78%.

Allergy and immunology: 83%.

Anesthesiology: 83%.

General internal medicine: 83%.

Geriatrics: 84%.

Pathology: 84%.

Cardiology: 85%.

Nephrology: 85%.

Physical medicine/rehabilitation: 85%.

Ob-gyn: 86%.

Pediatrics: 86%.

Otolaryngology: 87%.

Radiation oncology: 87%.

Neurological surgery: 89%.

Orthopedic surgery: 88%.

Radiology: 90%.

General surgery: 91%.

Infectious diseases: 91%.

Rheumatology: 91%.

Dermatology: 95%.

Hematology/oncology: 96%.

Colorectal surgery: 98%.

Gastroenterology: 98%.

Neurology: 104%.

Neonatology: 106%.

Endocrinology: 109%.

Critical care/pulmonology medicine: 112%.

Emergency medicine: 116%.

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