Navigating A Vuca World

It is an irony that medicines, meant to save lives in moments of crisis, are also among the first products to be affected when the world becomes unstable. Wars, blockades and missile strikes on shipping lanes directly affect the supply chains that carry lifesaving drugs across the world. 

And India sits at the centre of this paradox.

As the “Pharmacy of the World,” the country supplies nearly 20 per cent of global generic medicines and over 60 per cent of vaccines. In many ways, India has become a global health asset. But it is also deeply exposed to geopolitical instability. Every conflict in West Asia, every disruption in a key shipping corridor, and every spike in energy or freight costs eventually finds its way into the pharma supply chain.

The impact is real. Delayed deliveries to hospital pharmacies, rising input costs for Indian manufacturers already operating on tight margins, pressure on margins, fears about availability of essential medicines, and growing uncertainty in sourcing, production planning and exports. Ultimately, it is the patient who pays the price.

The question is no longer whether geopolitics will disrupt pharma manufacturing. It already has, repeatedly, and with escalating severity. India Pharma Inc can no longer afford to treat these events as temporary crises. They are now part of the operating environment itself.

The Red Sea to the Strait of Hormuz: Faultlines and risks

The warning signs first emerged in the Red Sea. Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in late 2023 and 2024 forced vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope.

Shipping costs surged and lead times stretched. A shipment that once took 25 days began taking 34 days or more.

At first, many believed the disruption would pass, but it didn’t.  Critical pharma ingredients and chemicals, including API shipments moving from APAC, especially India and China, to the US and Europe, came under pressure. And with over 65 per cent of India’s pharma exports moving by sea, the impact was significant.

Now, the West Asia conflict has brought the Strait of Hormuz, a far more dangerous chokepoint, into focus. Any disruption in Hormuz threatens far more than shipping. Through this narrow passage flows an estimated 20 per cent of global oil supply. Thus, it is a direct risk to the raw materials and energy ecosystem that pharma manufacturing depends on.

The numbers reveal the scale of the risk.

India exported pharma products worth $1.75 billion to the West Asia and North Africa (WANA) region in FY25. That accounted for nearly 5.7 per cent of India’s total pharma exports of $30.38 billion. Major destinations included the UAE, Iraq, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, markets now either inside conflict zones, close to them, or heavily dependent on vulnerable shipping corridors. 

And the impact is escalating rapidly.

Far reaching consequences

A recent report by Primus Partners on the West Asia crisis, which also looks at its effect on the pharma sector, states, “The scale of disruption is already visible in the trade data. In March 2026, India’s pharma exports fell from $3.68 billion to $2.83 billion, a 23 per cent decline and the first monthly drop in three years.Industry and government sources attribute 80 to 90 per cent of this fall directly to logistics disruptions resulting from the West Asia conflict. Freight surcharges and capacity constraints at key trans-shipment hubs, particularly Dubai and Abu Dhabi, have created vessel shortages, delays, and detention charges that have cascaded beyond the Gulf, disrupting onward shipments to the US, Europe, and Africa. Pharmexcil estimates the monthly losses to the Indian pharmaceutical industry at $26-32 million.This is not a demand-side problem, it is a supply chain shock to one of the most consequential trade routes in global healthcare.” 

Indian pharma companies could face losses of up to $750 million if the West Asia conflict continues, according to industry executives and analysts. What was initially seen as a short-term disruption has evolved into a far more serious crisis.

This, in turn, has ensured that business sustainability is no longer just an operational concern. It is becoming a strategic priority for pharma leaders across functions. Companies now need to plan and preparing for a future where uncertainty itself becomes constant.

Preparing for the future

Against this backdrop, Express Pharma’s team will examine how different functions across Indian pharma are evolving to tackle these pressures. From procurement and manufacturing to R&D, supply chain, quality, finance and commercial strategy, the feature will look at how each function is being forced to rethink old ways and build new capabilities for a volatile world.

The feature will assess the current landscape and the strategies companies are adopting to navigate uncertainty, both now and in the years ahead. At its core, it will explore one central question: how can Indian pharma future-proof itself in an increasingly unpredictable world?

Because the next phase of India’s pharma story will be defined by resilience. And, the companies that succeed will be the ones that will not just respond to change, but  prepare for it before it arrives. 

Financial strategies for uncertain times

The winds reshaping Indian pharma supply chains

The new playbook for pharma manufacturing

Resilience: The new mantra for R&D

Quality under pressure: Strengthening continuity amid geopolitical uncertainty

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