Rabobank raises global poultry growth forecast for 2026 to 3–3.5%

The global poultry industry continues to expand, prompting RaboResearch to raise its outlook for 2026. In its Global Poultry Quarterly Q3 2026, Rabobank increased its forecast for global poultry market growth from 2.5–3.0% to 3.0–3.5%, following stronger-than-expected performance across several major producing regions.

According to the report, poultry production expanded by more than 5% year-on-year during the first quarter of 2026 in many major markets. China, the European Union, South Africa, the Philippines and Brazil were among the main contributors to this growth. Poultry meat also continues to benefit from a favourable price position relative to beef, supporting an ongoing shift towards chicken consumption.

Despite the positive outlook, Rabobank notes that weaker economic conditions and increasing price sensitivity among consumers could weigh on demand, particularly in lower-income markets in southern Asia and parts of Africa.

The report also highlights a growing shift towards local production as more countries adopt food security strategies aimed at reducing dependence on imports. This trend is becoming increasingly evident across parts of Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia. China is identified as a notable example, having transitioned from the world’s largest chicken importer to a significant net exporter.

Global poultry trade nevertheless remained resilient during the first quarter of 2026, growing by 3.5% year-on-year despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Trade flows to Gulf markets remained resilient, supported by key exporting countries and regional trade hubs, including Brazil, Ukraine, Türkiye, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Oman.

Rabobank also notes that the interim agreement between the United States and Iran, which extends the ceasefire and supports the reopening of commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, could reduce short-term risks for energy and shipping markets while supporting trade in poultry products and feed ingredients.

Looking ahead, the report identifies several factors that could influence market conditions, including geopolitical uncertainty, the potential effects of El Niño and a tight global breeding stock market. It also notes that the potential removal of Brazilian poultry products from EU imports could reshape international trade flows, pushing EU prices higher, Brazilian prices lower and increasing imports from alternative suppliers such as Thailand and China.

Against this backdrop, Rabobank concludes that maintaining market balance will require disciplined production planning and a continued focus on operational excellence as the poultry industry operates in an increasingly uncertain and volatile market environment.