USDA raises US poultry production and export forecasts for 2026 and 2027

The October WASDE report lifts output forecasts for broilers, turkeys and eggs. Turkey price forecasts move higher, while broiler and egg prices are revised down for the last quarter of 2026.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its poultry and egg production forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, published on October 9.

The changes from September are small, but they add to the growth already expected this year. Compared with 2025, federally inspected broiler production is forecast to increase by 3.6% in 2026, turkey production by 6.0% and egg production by 4.5%. For 2027, the projections point to slower growth: 0.9% for both broilers and turkeys and 2.0% for eggs.

Higher broiler and turkey production expected

Federally inspected US broiler production is now forecast at 49.72 billion pounds in 2026, up 100 million pounds from September, and at 50.15 billion pounds in 2027, up 150 million pounds.

Turkey production has been raised to 5.13 billion pounds in 2026 and 5.18 billion pounds in 2027, increases of 35 million and 55 million pounds respectively.

The 2026 revisions reflect current slaughter, bird weight and hatchery data, while the 2027 increases are based on higher expected slaughter.

Poultry meat export forecasts raised

Stronger-than-expected demand from the Caribbean has prompted the USDA to raise its broiler export forecasts for both years. Shipments are now forecast at 6.70 billion pounds in 2026, up 105 million pounds from September, and 6.62 billion pounds in 2027, up 120 million.

Turkey export forecasts have also been raised, to 461 million pounds in 2026 (from 441 million) and 450 million pounds in 2027 (from 415 million), reflecting the recent pace of shipments and higher production.

Even after these revisions, exports of both meats are forecast to be lower in 2027 than in 2026.

Egg production forecast raised on a larger laying flock

Total US egg production, including hatching eggs, is now projected at 9.16 billion dozen in 2026 and 9.34 billion dozen in 2027, 20 million dozen more than in September for both years. The USDA attributes the increase to growth in the laying flock; in 2027, the additional output is expected in the first half of the year.

Based on updated trade data, egg exports for 2026 have been lowered from 271.8 million to 268.8 million dozen. The 2027 forecast remains unchanged at 300 million dozen.

Turkey prices revised up, broiler and egg forecasts trimmed

For broilers, the USDA has lowered its price forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the second half of 2027, citing larger domestic supplies and seasonal demand patterns. Despite the lower fourth-quarter figure, the 2026 annual average wholesale price is marginally higher than in September, at 118.9 cents per pound compared with 118.8. The 2027 forecast has been reduced from 122 to 121 cents per pound.

Turkey price forecasts, by contrast, have been raised for both years on recent price strength and tight supplies of whole birds. For 8–16 lb hens (national price series), the annual average is now forecast at 175.5 cents per pound in 2026, up from 174.6, and 145 cents in 2027, up from 140. This still implies a drop of around 17% from 2026 to 2027.

The egg price forecast for the rest of 2026 has been cut on higher production and recent price weakness. The annual average for New York Grade A large eggs is now forecast at 103.5 cents per dozen, down from 106.6. In 2025 the average was 373.7 cents. The 2027 forecast is unchanged at 111 cents per dozen.

Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-676), October 9, 2026.