Beyond Replacement Why Marine Ingredient Scarcity Is Reshaping the Future of Aquaculture

By Innovafeed

Marine Ingredient Scarcity Is Becoming Structural, Not Cyclical.

For decades, aquaculture has relied on fishmeal and fish oil as its nutritional foundation. Today, that model is under increasing pressure. Several indicators point to a structural shift:

✓ Fishmeal prices have risen sharply since May 2026, reaching the highest levels seen in years.

✓ Peru and Chile, which account for the majority of global anchovy production, have reduced catches following lower biomass assessments.

✓ Fish oil prices increased by more than 40% in one quarter, reflecting growing pressure on marine resources.

✓ Climate change and recurring El Niño events are expected to further increase supply volatility.

The question is no longer whether shortages will occur, but how the industry can adapt.

 Scarcity Changes the Role of Alternative Ingredients

Historically, alternative proteins were developed to replace fishmeal. Today’s challenge is different.

The objective is no longer simply to substitute marine ingredients, but to use them where they deliver the highest biological value while complementing them with functional ingredients that improve animal performance, resilience and supply security.

This represents a shift from ingredient replacement to ingredient optimization.

Functional Ingredients Are Becoming Strategic Assets

At Innovafeed, we believe the next generation of aquafeeds will combine several complementary ingredients rather than rely on a single substitute.

Hilucia Black Soldier Fly Larvae (BSFL) ingredients naturally provide:

These compounds contribute not only to nutrition but also to gut health, immune support and animal robustness.

Key Figures

+ 44% increase in fish oil prices (Q1 2026)

– 28% global fishmeal production (IFFO).

35% lower anchovy biomass in Peru versus previous estimates.

Up to 1.8 M tons of alternative ingredients needed annually to maintain future aquaculture production under severe forage fish shortage scenarios (Nature Food).

Sources

✓ IFFO.

✓ Nature Food.

✓ World Bank

✓ IMF.

✓ Rabobank Research.

✓ Innovafeed White Paper (2026) www.innovafeed.com