Poultry growth forecast rises to 3.5%, but oversupply weighs on prices

RaboResearch has raised its 2026 growth forecast for global poultry production to 3.5%. In several markets, output is rising faster than demand, while feed and energy costs are increasing.

The new forecast is at the top of the bank’s previous 3.0–3.5% range and about one percentage point above the long-term average. Where supply is already ample, that pace of growth is putting pressure on prices.

In China, poultry production increased by 9.4% year on year in the first half of 2026, reaching 13.9 million metric tons. With abundant supply and soft seasonal demand, prices fell from CNY 7.5 per kg in the first quarter to CNY 6.4 per kg in early September, below farm-level breakeven points. The report also identifies oversupply challenges in Vietnam, Japan, South Africa and the US.

The EU remains among the best-performing markets, alongside the UK, India, Russia and the Philippines. Its chicken market has nevertheless become more volatile. RaboResearch reports a 6% increase in European chicken production. Chick placements were 4.5% higher year on year in the second quarter, and higher slaughter weights also contributed to the increase. Poland has returned to growth, while Spain, France and Hungary are among the fastest-growing producers.

European chicken prices declined by 5% to 10% in July and August as supply increased. The industry remains profitable, but feed prices have begun to rise, and the bank expects European feed costs to be around 15% higher year on year in the fourth quarter.

Trade is another source of uncertainty. Traders built stocks ahead of Brazil’s removal from the EU list of approved chicken and beef exporters in early September. EU poultry imports rose by 15% year on year in the second quarter to 260,000 metric tons. Imports from Brazil reached around 115,000 metric tons in product-weight equivalent, between 50% and 100% above average second-quarter levels over the past decade.

Brazilian product normally accounts for 5% to 10% of the EU breast meat market. RaboResearch expects stocks to tighten gradually, putting upward pressure on frozen breast meat prices. How long the restriction will last remains unclear.

Global chicken trade reached 3.8 million metric tons in the second quarter, up more than 10% year on year. Brazil’s exports grew by 22% and China’s by 68%, while exports from the EU and Thailand declined. Supported by strong domestic production, China is now the world’s third-largest chicken exporter, ahead of the EU.

Feed prices are expected to rise moderately into early 2027. With costs increasing and consumers becoming more price-sensitive in many markets, the report calls for more disciplined production growth to keep supply in line with demand.

Source: RaboResearch, Global poultry quarterly Q4 2026, September 2026.