Feed ingredient outlook 2027: Corn, wheat and soybean meal markets

RaboResearch forecasts declining grain inventories and sustained demand for soybean meal, while disruptions to international trade and high energy costs remain sources of uncertainty.

Poultry feed manufacturers face a mixed outlook for 2027. Corn supplies are expected to remain adequate despite declining global stocks, wheat markets are projected to record deficits in both 2026/27 and 2027/28, and soybean meal prices are forecast to remain relatively stable.

These projections come from RaboResearch’s November 2026 report, Outlook 2027: Farming through the fog, which examines agricultural commodity markets against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, changing trade flows and elevated energy costs.

Corn: adequate supplies but declining stocks

Global corn production is forecast to fall by 3% year-on-year in 2026/27, partly offset by opening stocks that are 4% higher than the previous year. Supplies should remain sufficient, although two consecutive seasons of global deficits are expected to reduce inventories.

Declining Chinese corn stocks are expected to bring the global stocks-to-use ratio down to 21% in 2027/28, compared with a five-year average of 25%.

Growing demand from Brazil’s ethanol and animal feed industries is keeping more corn in the domestic market, creating export opportunities for Argentina and the United States. Ukrainian exports, meanwhile, are forecast to fall by 19% in 2026/27. Alternative transport routes cannot fully compensate for restricted Black Sea port capacity.

RaboResearch expects corn prices to remain within a relatively narrow range, supported by declining inventories. Quarterly average CBOT futures are forecast between 480 and 496 US cents per bushel during 2027.

Wheat: tighter balances and Black Sea disruptions

Wheat trade in the Black Sea region remains difficult. Exports from both Russia and Ukraine have fallen sharply, leading to stock accumulation in the two countries. Weak domestic prices and high production costs could discourage future plantings, adding pressure to global supplies.

RaboResearch estimates a global wheat deficit of around 4 million tonnes in 2026/27 and preliminarily projects a wider shortfall of 8.5 million tonnes in 2027/28. Production increases are expected in the United States, European Union and Australia, but may not be enough to offset reductions elsewhere.

Geopolitical tensions and declining global stocks are expected to support international wheat prices. For European Matif wheat, however, RaboResearch forecasts relatively stable quarterly averages of EUR 230–232 per tonne throughout 2027.

Soybean meal: strong demand absorbs increased production

Higher US soybean crushing volumes, supported partly by demand for soybean oil from the biofuel industry, have increased soybean meal production. The growing value of soybean oil has also improved soybean meal’s price competitiveness in feed formulations.

Strong export demand has helped limit the increase in US soybean meal stocks, avoiding the substantial accumulation previously identified by RaboResearch as a risk.

According to USDA forecasts cited in the report, US soybean meal exports are expected to increase by 10.7% in 2026/27. The latest available data for 2026 also show Brazilian shipments rising by 12.9% year-on-year. Stronger import demand in Southeast Asia is supporting South American exports.

RaboResearch forecasts quarterly average soybean meal futures between USD 325 and USD 330 per US short ton in 2027. Stronger-than-expected exports could push prices higher. Conversely, production growth exceeding demand would increase the risk of stock accumulation and downward price pressure.

Diesel prices and freight costs

Diesel prices are expected to remain elevated in 2027. Refinery damage, low inventories and transport constraints continue to limit fuel availability, even as crude oil supplies are expected to improve later in the year. RaboResearch considers a broad return to normal diesel pricing during 2027 unlikely.

Disruptions to shipping routes, combined with high freight and insurance costs, could further complicate international agricultural trade. For poultry feed manufacturers importing corn, wheat and soybean meal, these transport costs can also affect the cost of sourcing ingredients from overseas markets.

Source: RaboResearch, Outlook 2027: Farming through the fog, November 2026.