EU poultry meat production forecast to rise 3.3% in 2026

The European Commission forecasts a 17.1% increase in poultry meat imports in 2026. Its autumn outlook also cuts the EU cereal production estimate by 11.7 million tonnes following summer heat and drought.

EU poultry meat production is forecast to increase by 3.3% in 2026, according to the European Commission’s autumn Short-term Outlook. Beef production is expected to fall by 2.2%, and pigmeat output to grow by 0.5%.

Poultry meat imports are projected to rise by 17.1% compared with 2025. The Commission expects shipments from Brazil to increase by 55% and those from Ukraine by 23%, accounting for most of the forecast growth. Exports are expected to increase by 1%. The outlook also identifies highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and related trade restrictions as continuing sources of uncertainty for the sector.

The 55% increase forecast for Brazilian imports covers 2026 as a whole. Imports of Brazilian poultry meat have been suspended since 3 September under EU rules on antimicrobial use. On 21 October, following a positive audit, the Commission announced its intention to propose restoring Brazil’s authorisation to export poultry meat to the EU. The proposal still requires approval by member states.

EU cereal production forecast cut after summer drought

The Commission has lowered its estimate for EU cereal production in 2026/27 to 262 million tonnes, compared with 273.7 million tonnes forecast in July. The revised figure is 9.6% below the previous marketing year and 4.7% below the five-year average. Heatwaves and drought in major growing regions have reduced expected yields, particularly for summer crops.

EU maize production is estimated at 48.5 million tonnes, 20% below the five-year average. Lower domestic availability is expected to push maize imports to 25 million tonnes in 2026/27, up 5.7 million tonnes from the previous marketing year.

Soft wheat production is estimated at 124.2 million tonnes, less than 2% below the five-year average. Barley output is expected to exceed that average by 5%, supported by a record harvest in Romania.

EU soybean production is estimated at 2.2 million tonnes, 19% below the five-year average. The Commission expects soybean meal imports to reach 20.5 million tonnes, 17% above that average, to compensate for lower domestic production and increased demand for feed.

Across the livestock sector, summer heat and drought have already increased feed costs, according to the Commission. Farmers have also faced additional expenditure on cooling systems and water management, adding to overall production costs.

Sources: European Commission, Short-term Outlook – Autumn 2026; Summer 2026 Outlook; Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1189; Reuters, 21 October 2026.